"Our Changing Climate: The Great Debate"
            first Aired December 1, 1997 - 10:00 p.m. ET

ANNOUNCER (voice-over): The world is warming up and so is the controversy over what it means. From disaster...

1ST SPEAKER: If we don't act, we're going to have record heat, record drought in some places, record flooding in others.

ANNOUNCER (voice-over): ... to disdain.

2ND SPEAKER: People who say that there's a catastrophe right around the corner are suggesting an approach that is driving full speed on a foggy road.

PROTESTERS: Today is the day! Today is the day!

ANNOUNCER (voice-over): There is a call to action.

PRES. CLINTON: If we do not change our course now, the consequences, sooner or later, will be destructive for America and for the world.

ANNOUNCER (voice-over): The change of course could mean cutting pollution from factories, reducing emissions from cars, scaling back energy consumption. The whole planet's involved. One way or another, we're all going to pay.

3RD SPEAKER: We're talking about higher prices. We're talking about fewer jobs. We're talking about more expensive exports.

ANNOUNCER (voice-over): The cost is real, but the crisis may not be.

4TH SPEAKER: It's a hypothetical issue that may become very serious in 20 or 30 or 50 years.

5TH SPEAKER: There's still a lot of unanswered questions.

ANNOUNCER (voice-over): Tonight, sorting the hard facts from the unfounded fears. A CNN Special Report anchored by Bill Hemmer and Daryn Kagan, with contributions from CNN Correspondents from around the world. Our Changing Climate: The Great Debate. Here now, Daryn Kagan and Bill Hemmer.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening. We cover a lot of topics here at CNN, but many viewers tell us what matters most to them is the weather forecast.

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: It can have drama, it's beyond human control, and it affects our lives every single day.

KAGAN: Like do you need an umbrella?

HEMMER: Does your child need an extra coat maybe for school in the morning?

KAGAN: Is the airport fogged in when you need to catch a plane?

HEMMER: Tonight, we examine what could be the mother of all forecasts, but this one we may be able to do something about. We're talking about the world's changing climate.

KAGAN: It's a stormy subject for a lot of reasons, and it's the focus of some 150 countries gathered for the United Nations conference that began today in Kyoto, Japan. Details now from Tom Mintier.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM MINTIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is Kyoto's chance to show off and to demonstrate that Japan has already invested millions of dollars to make industries and motor vehicles cleaner and more energy efficient. The Japanese have always been conscious of the environment. They switched to nuclear power when oil supplies became scarce in the 1970s and recycle waste religiously.

KEIZO OBUCHI, JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTER (interpreter): This problem is inevitably causing severe consequences not only on our future generations but also on our ecosystems which surround us.

MINTIER: Here in Kyoto, the debate is on how best to reverse the trend of the release of harmful gases into the atmosphere. Getting an agreement will not be easy. The delegate from Australia's World Wildlife Fund showed up with a paper sack covering his face. He said he wanted to make a statement that he was ashamed of his own government's policy, a major producer of coal, to block any agreement to reduce gas emissions.

MICHAEL RAE, WORLD WILDLIFE FUND, AUSTRALIA: Australia should be thinking about that intelligently. How do we transfer our economy from one that does rely on coal exports to something that doesn't?

MINTIER: This meeting will attempt to set the benchmark to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases, but getting the formula has always been the problem.

RAUL ESTRADA, CHAIRMAN, CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE: There are a good number of countries which do want to have an agreement, and there are other countries that think that it would be better off not to have an agreement on this occasion. That we have to overcome.

MINTIER: Developed nations like the United States produce the highest emissions. The U.S. only has 4 percent of the world's population but puts out more than a quarter of the emissions. The Americans are looking for a way to reduce the figure without reducing their economy. Other less-developed countries look at the issue differently. Many are just interested in building an economy. Carbon dioxide, or CO2, makes up nearly 90 percent of the global warming problem. It occurs from fuel burning, mostly fossil fuels like coal and oil.

(on camera) The meeting here in Kyoto offers up a mixture of political points and decimal points. Environmentalists fear that politics and big business will come up the winners and that the effort to reduce emissions will once again be delayed.

Tom Mintier, CNN, Kyoto, Japan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HEMMER: So that's what the politicians are up to, but we're all, by our very existence, players in this global controversy. So it's important we know the same facts the folks in Kyoto do. Here's Bruce Morton with that story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRUCE MORTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): "One generation passeth away and another generation cometh," wrote the preacher in "Ecclesiastes," "but the Earth abideth forever." Sure, but what if it's getting hotter?

ACTRESS ("THE ARRIVAL" -- COURTESY LIVE ENTERTAINMENT): ... peaks at around 99 degrees today and, yes, that will be a record for this day in October.

MORTON: In the science-fiction movie "The Arrival", aliens raised earth's temperatures. In life, we seem to be doing it ourselves.

CAROL BROWNER, EPA ADMINISTRATOR: Nine of the last 14 years have been the warmest of the century, evidence that, in fact, human activity, the burning of fossil fuel, is releasing pollution into the air, is causing the earth's climate to warm.

MORTON: So what will happen? Will these guys become extinct? Will these guys take over the world? No, but...

BROWNER: If nothing is done, we are leaving our children a mess. It is just that simple.

MORTON: Swedish chemist Fossi Arhenius (ph) said in 1896 [methinks CNN means 1986??-- ED] that burning fossil fuels like coal created gases that kept heat in the atmosphere. No one listened then. Many listen now. In Mexico...

MEXICAN (interpreter): Because of pollution, we're paying the price. Because of the same pollution we've caused with so many cars and so little consciousness.

MORTON: In Germany...

GERMAN (interpreter): It's already happening. It's not a thing of the future. It's already taking place.

SANDIE STEMPEL, TEACHER (to students): Do you have your spot, Andrew? Everybody is going to go out and do a total atmosphere profile.

MORTON: Polls say Americans are more skeptical of global warming than other people but not here, not at the 11th-grade Global Ecology Class at Poolesville in Western Maryland.

STEMPEL (to students): The atmosphere is moving, which is what makes this whole thing global, right? This air that we're using right now was in Ohio yesterday, right?

MORTON: The students measure humidity and wind, check for pollutants like carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. There's an incinerator in the neighborhood.

1ST STUDENT (to lab partner): I know, but there was extra stuff, too.

MORTON: And back inside, they log the results, but they and teacher Sandie Stempel have talked about all of it, pollution from cars and factories, loss of the rainforest, and they know the United Nations is considering a treaty -- they call it a bill -- that would ask developed countries like the U.S. to cut their emissions of these gases.

2ND STUDENT: The developed countries have to make up for the underdeveloped countries.

MORTON: What do they think about it?

3RD STUDENT: We're not really doing anything. We need to be the first ones in there to cut our emissions down, and then everyone else will follow, and if that means that we're going to have to feel a little pinch in our pocketbooks, then I say go for it.

4TH STUDENT: So many families are going to go into poverty and going to have to completely change the way they're living and, you know, they're -- you're going to see like a lot of like middle-class people dropping down to like lower class not being able to like live the life they're used to.

MORTON: Teacher Sandy says how about raising the driving age. That would save gas.

STEMPEL: After all, you don't have to drive until you're out of college.

5TH STUDENT: We'll all survive. Maybe we won't have the big luxurious homes, but we'll all be fine, and then we'll be able to breathe cleaner air.

ACTRESS ("The Arrival", courtesy Live Entertainment): In fact, it's been warmer than normal.

MORTON: In that science-fiction movie, one of the aliens says...

ACTOR ("The Arrival", courtesy Live Entertainment): If you can't tend to your own planet, none of you deserve to live here.

MORTON: In Poolesville, they are thinking about that.

2ND STUDENT: We have to think about everybody in the future because, if we don't think about it now, then there isn't going to be a future.

MORTON: In Poolesville and around the planet, they are thinking about the earth which abideth forever.

Bruce Morton, CNN, Poolesville, Maryland.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: And when it comes to the great debate over global warming, one man's lessons are another man's lies. That story in a moment, but, first, let's look at which countries are the biggest polluters on earth.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): The United States leads the world when it comes to generating carbon emissions, belching out more than 1.3 billion metric tons every year. It's followed by the former Soviet Union, China, Japan, Germany, India, and Great Britain.

But that is not the whole story here. While the former Soviet Union may put out a smaller amount of heat-trapping gases than the U.S., it produces a lot fewer goods and services in the process. In fact, the former Soviet Union is the least economically efficient of the world's big polluters. Germany, China, and Great Britain get less economic bang for their greenhouse gas buck than the U.S. as well.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAGAN: The world's climate changes. It always has. It always will. "The New York Times" today had a special section on global warming, and it points out that the earth's gone through a lot in the past four and a half billion years. It's been cold enough to qualify as a ball of ice. It's been so hot that alligators and other warm- weather creatures were living around the North Pole. So what's the big deal about what's going on now? Here is Miles O'Brien.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If you want to learn about climate change, ask an oceanographer. That's right. An oceanographer. Twenty miles off the Georgia coast, Sylvia Earle has seen the fossilized evidence that mastodons and humans lived here 10,000 years ago.

SYLVIA EARLE, OCEANOGRAPHER: Clearly, sea level goes up and down, and it has through the ages. There are natural cycles.

O'BRIEN: Here's what makes those natural cycles spin. You could think of the earth as being wrapped in a blanket, a blanket of gases: water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. This blanket insulates the earth by trapping heat. It's a lot like panes of glass in a greenhouse.

EARLE: That's a part of what makes the planet work. I mean, planets and human beings and animals generally produce carbon dioxide as a part of their natural living process, and methane is a natural gas that is produced by living things, and it's part of the natural system.

O'BRIEN: In fact, gaseous expulsions from livestock are a major source of methane. Without greenhouse gases, the earth would be way too cold for comfort, unable to sustain life as we know it. The problem is humans are thickening the blanket by producing a lot of greenhouse gases. Emissions from these are filled with carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. As a result, more heat is trapped, and we nudge nature's thermostat up.

EARLE: What may be happening as a consequence of human activity is like pushing the fast-forward button and speeding up the process and accelerating what may be a part of the natural cycle.

O'BRIEN (on camera): The planet is littered with proof that pushing the fast-forward button on the climate machine can mean big trouble. Sixty-five million years ago, an asteroid augured into what is now Mexico. Kicking up the mother of all dust storms, it obscured the sun's rays, killing plants and trees en masse. Before long, it was curtains for the dinosaurs.

Ironically, it was that event which laid the groundwork for today's climate troubles. When the dust settled, the path was clear for mammals and ultimately humans to dominate the planet and invent the sport utility vehicle. Meanwhile, the dinosaurs were quietly decomposing into fossils, eventually becoming unleaded gasoline.

(voice-over) While doomsayers are not predicting we are headed the way of T-rex. They do say this.

EARLE: Suppose in the next hundred years, you have a rise of sea level of, as some are saying, two or three feet, the consequences to places such as Florida would be rather dramatic and both ecologically and economically substantial.

O'BRIEN: And she says some island nations would virtually disappear, forests will feel the squeeze -- many types of trees cannot adapt fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures -- fall in New England would lose its vivid hues, and as for human health, heat- related deaths will rise, and tropical diseases like malaria will spread. It's a bleak outlook, and Sylvia Earle says we must do something to avoid it.

EARLE: This is a pivotal time in history, and I think as such we should take the responsibility pretty seriously and look at what we can do.

O'BRIEN: Miles O'Brien, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HEMMER: Now consider this. Not so long ago, scientists were proclaiming that increased use of aerosol sprays might cause the world's temperature to drop. In warnings reminiscent of Chicken Little, a 1971 issue of "Science" magazine said -- I'm quoting here -- "If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age." Well, no sign of an encroaching glacier just yet. No wonder some say chill when it comes to worries over global warming. That story from Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Valentina Denesiva (ph) shovels snow for a living. Is she a believer?  "Nyet. I don't see any real global warming," she says. "I haven't noticed any real fluctuations in the temperature." Nor are there many converts along the Florida coast, large portions of which are supposed to go under as the globe warms and the oceans swell.

HECTOR CASTRO, SOUTH FLORIDA REALTOR: Nobody asks really questions about global warming. All they want is just to come here, enjoy the life, be in the best place in the world probably, and if they are in the front of the water, the better they are.

CROWLEY: The threat of global warming is a front-burner political issue that has not caught fire in the streets. "I cannot say anything," says this Berliner. "I know nothing about this." A CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll found that 35 percent of Americans worried a great deal about global warming in 1989. Many photo ops and eight years later, only 24 percent were greatly worried.

SAN FRANCISCAN: It's not something I worry about, I'll tell you that. I don't know. It's hard to say whether it's something that actually exists or not.

CROWLEY: Not all the skepticism is on the streets. There are scientists who question the link between what people have done and what nature is doing. Those melting glaciers are not yesterday's news. They're last century's news.

RICHARD LINDZEN, PROFESSOR OF METEOROLOGY, MIT: You have these news events. People are taken to Glacier National Park or to Alaska, and they're shown a glacier that has been retreating, and the assumption is it's due to global warming, but then you look at the markers, and the retreat began around 1820. That's not due to global warming, at least not from man.

CROWLEY: Street translation...

1ST NEW YORKER: There's been a history of the earth being warm, and then it gets cold. We're in a warm spell right now.

CROWLEY: Beyond what's causing the warmup, some skeptics are certain that the models used to predict the climate do not and cannot deal with the delicate complexities of how the earth ticks.

BILL GRAY, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTIST, COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY: I know the atmosphere is very complex, too complex to be put in a global model and integrated seasons, multi years, and centuries in the future. It's just too complex to be done.

CROWLEY: Street translation...

2ND NEW YORKER: Basically, I think that there's a lot of things that go on for scientific evidence that people grab on that are fads and that are not proven out. You know, one week, coffee is good for you. The next week, it's not good for you. One week, you're supposed to take Vitamin C for colds. Next year, it's Zinc.

CROWLEY: There are scientists who think the conventional wisdom is a sincere effort to do the impossible, assume a range of possibilities and reach a consensus prediction on the climate 20, 50, a hundred years from now.

JESSE AUSUBEL, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENTIST, ROCKEFELLER UNIVERSITY: If you take the high assumptions each time, you have something very frightening. If you take low guesses each time, you have a non- problem. So you come back to the question of how risk averse are you now because I think in the end it's not just unknown, it's really unknowable how serious the problem will be.

CROWLEY: Street translation: Anything could happen.

3RD NEW YORKER: It's going to be more rain and more mud slides out in California and all that stuff, but New York -- they didn't say nothing about New York. I read in the "Star" they didn't say nothing about New York. They said New York's going to be OK. [this person may be unwittingly referring just to the effects of El Nino, and not global warming per se`-- ED.]

CROWLEY (on camera): Critics agree the globe is warming. Their questions revolve around specific elements within that general agreement, how much will it warm up, what will happen, how much are humans responsible, and what can or should governments do about it. In the end, skepticism is a matter of degrees.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Cambridge.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HEMMER: Just ahead here, ready or not, your way of life is going to change, but before we get to that, the implications now of melting ice.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Ice. Forty-one million square miles of ice, primarily from the polar icecaps and the icebergs that break away. It covers about a fifth of the earth's surface. If only a few percent of that melted, it could contribute to a sea-level rise of 2 or 3 feet, flooding coastal areas around the world.

The question is, though, how much global warming would it take to cause that degree of melting, and the answer is nobody's quite sure, but many scientists fear the consequences should the earth warm as little as 2 or three degrees.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Now to your pocketbook. Some say cutting emissions here in the U.S. could double your energy bills at home and force companies around the world to change the way they do business. It's going to cost, and some warn the cost could be your job. Once again, Miles O'Brien.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): They say you can't stop progress, but some believe that's exactly what will happen if the world is forced to throttle back on fossil fuel emissions.

FRED SMITH, COMPETITIVE ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE [a group organized by and for the greedy-- ED.]: These could literally rip the guts out of the whole engine of economic growth.

O'BRIEN: Economist Fred Smith is among those who believe where there is smoke, there will be firings. Blue-collar jobs primarily. Perhaps more than a million in the U.S. oil, steel, and mining industries. Globally, the numbers are even more daunting. In Australia alone, 90,000 coal miners might be mining the want ads.

But is the news all bad? Environmentalist Chris Flavin is in the silver lining camp. He reminds us, 150 years ago, folks couldn't imagine putting their horses out to pasture.

CHRIS FLAVIN, WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE: Railroads -- people were scared of them initially. Nobody wanted to invest in what was seen as a very expensive technology.

O'BRIEN: But that expensive technology paid off in the long run. Could history repeat itself? Environmentalists hope so.

FLAVIN: I think that if we do this in an intelligent way, we're going to end up, you know, with more comfortable homes, much nicer vehicles, and easier ability to get around where we need to go, and probably doing all of that at lower cost.

O'BRIEN: So who will be the Henry Ford, the Bill Gates of this technological revolution? Perhaps it will be the entrepreneurs who can perfect solar or wind power or make less power-hungry refrigerators, stoves, and computers. More likely, there will be opportunities which we cannot predict.

(on camera) But some of the short-term predictions remain troubling. Imagine spending 50 cents more for a gallon of gasoline. Consider what your power bill would look like with a 40-percent increase. The Kyoto summit may mean we pay much more for energy and use less of it, and there's no doubt that would change our lives drastically.

SMITH: Energy is such a pervasive part of the modern world economy that the types of policies, the 30-, 40-percent reductions in carbon use that are talked about seriously at the Kyoto-style negotiations, are civilization destroyers.

O'BRIEN (voice-over): So what will it be? Post-industrial utopia or a great global depression? Probably neither, but in the climate leading up to Kyoto, it seems you have to pick sides.

Miles O'Brien, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: Regulars on CNN's CROSSFIRE certainly aren't shy about picking sides. Luckily for us, their blowing off steam probably won't affect the climate. Here's Bill Press and Pat Buchanan.

PAT BUCHANAN, CNN ANCHOR: Bill, you're a reasonably intelligent fellow. Why are you and Al Gore frightening yourselves to death with this Hollywood goblin about global warming?

BILL PRESS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, thanks for the compliment, Pat, but let me tell you. You know what I think it amounts to, Pat? Two words. First, an Old Testament word. Stewardship. You ought to know that word. Secondly, Pat, a '90s word. Responsibility. I think what it comes down to is that, as parents, we've got a general responsibility to take care of this planet, make sure that our kids have the same kind of clean air and the clean water that we've been blessed with, and also, as parents, when 2,600 of the world's leading scientists warn us that because of human activity this planet's in danger, I think we've got a specific responsibility, Pat, not to stick our head in the sand, like you might want to do, like some ostrich, but to take them seriously and to act, Pat.

Let me just say this. That's especially true for the United States. We're the number one producer of these greenhouse gases. We're the number one contributor to the problem of global warming. We ought to be the number one nation -- Al Gore's leadership or whoever's leadership -- we Americans ought to be number one pointing toward a solution.

BUCHANAN: Bill, we are not the number one contributor of greenhouse gases. You know who is? Mother Nature. Ninety-five percent...

PRESS: Oh, you...

BUCHANAN: Ninety-five percent of all the carbon dioxide that goes up into the atmosphere comes from Mother Nature; 5 percent from mankind. Bill, take a look at what's happened. In the last hundred years, the temperature of the earth has gone up by one-half of 1 degree Celsius. Since 1979, with satellites, we found out it's been cooling. The real danger, Bill, is not global warming. It is the idiot policies you and Mr. Gore and those characters over in Kyoto are dreaming up to deal with it. You're going to ruin and cripple an economy on which the American people depend because you fellows have frightened yourselves to death with a lot of propaganda.

PRESS: You know what I have faith in, which you don't seem to have any faith in? You know what the answer here is, Pat? It's American technology, Pat. We're in the middle of a revolution in terms of how energy is produced in this country right now. Cleaner energy. Pat, you know what the utilities are doing? It's called cogeneration. It's called solar energy. It's call wind energy. Those are alternatives. You know what the American automobile industry is doing? I'm not talking Buck Rogers now. They're producing electric cars. In California, you can buy one. And what about smaller, more fuel efficient cars? These are all the ways, Pat, that we can produce cleaner energy without...

BUCHANAN: You know...

PRESS: ... costing Americans one red dime.

BUCHANAN: Those little electric cars you're talking about cost as much as my former Mercedes. Only the thing is, Bill, they're little, tiny, dinky things. They are smaller, and they are lighter. You put those on the highways, and you're going to kill real Americans. I'm not talking about some mythical global warming. I'm talking about deaths on the highway. That's exactly what would happen. But you want clean energy? I got it for you. Why not, Bill, have your environmentalists join us in coming out for nuclear power?

PRESS: We don't need nuclear, Pat. You've got great potential in solar. How about alternative fuels like ethanol and methanol?

BUCHANAN: Look...

PRESS: Again, fuel cells, wind energy...

BUCHANAN: Bill, you guys...

PRESS: Lots of ways, Pat. You don't need nuclear.

BUCHANAN: No. You guys have got to study some economists, Bill. You've got to study economics because we've had these fuel cells, we've had the wind power. I've been out to California and seen your little windmills. They're all very nice and all that. Why don't you have them all over the place?

PRESS: They work.

BUCHANAN: Because they cost too much for what they produce in terms of energy. This country runs on fossil fuels, and you've got to stop knocking America because America -- for every unit of GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, we use one-third of the energy of India, and we do one-fourth of the polluting of India. It is these Third-World countries where the problems are.

PRESS: You know what else Americans care about? They care about the environment. They care about clean air. They care about clean water. They care about beautiful open spaces and national parks. And you guys could have taken the lead. You didn't. You gave that issue to Al Gore. You gave that issue to Bill Clinton. You know, too bad for you. You lose on that issue.

BUCHANAN: I was part of an administration, the Nixon administration, which created the EPA. The water -- we do believe in clean...

PRESS: You're right.

BUCHANAN: ... water, we do believe in clean air, but we do not believe in frightening ourselves to death that the planet's going to heat up and we're going to have floods and hurricanes and crops and 10-foot rodents running all over us. Bill, you haven't made the sale. You and all your other scientists are right in league with Chicken Little and Henny Penny and Ducky Lucky [We thought it was 'Lucky Ducky', Pat-- ED.] and the whole gang who said the sky is falling.

PRESS: Pat, I don't know whether you can call me Ducky Lucky, [We stand corrected-- ED.] but -- I've been called worse than that, to tell the truth, but you know what I think it boils down to, Pat? I'm willing to admit this. I could be wrong, but, Pat, you could be wrong, and the way I see it is, if we do what I want to do, do something about global warming and I'm wrong, the worst that happens is we have a cleaner planet and we've got cleaner air, Pat. If we do nothing, like you want, and you're wrong, you've got economic and environmental disaster for this country, Pat. We can't afford to take that risk.

BUCHANAN: No. If you try to constrict the American economy, you will create an economic disaster in this country, and you will destroy the dreams of millions of Americans. Why? Because Bill Press and his friends are frightened. Let us wait for real threats, Bill, and not terrify ourselves over threats that do not exist.

PRESS: Pat, if we wait, it's too late.

From the left, I'm Bill Press.

BUCHANAN: From the right, Pat Buchanan. [From another planet, don't you mean, Pat??-- ED.]

Now back to Daryn.

KAGAN: Ducky Lucky? OK. Not too many warm feelings coming from those two. Out of the crossfire and on to the potential consequences of global warming. Ahead, the mosquitoes are coming, and they could be lethal. First, though, a quick stop at the market.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Introducing pollution for sale. It's an innovative twist at the Chicago Board of Trade that has helped decrease the amount of acid-rain-causing sulfur dioxide by treating pollution as a commodity, much like corn or soybeans. Since 1993, companies have bought and sold pollution permits.

Here's how it works. Companies that do a good job cleaning up by exceeding the clean air quotas set by the government can sell their excess allowances at a profit to companies that fail to comply. It's a system that rewards companies cleaning up their acts and raises the cost for heavy polluters, such as power companies and certain manufacturers. Since this 1993 marriage of convenience between the marketplace and the socially conscious goal of lowering pollution levels, trading volume is up, and permit prices have fallen, meaning emissions have been reduced.
[This concept is debunked by the first thing Hemmer says after the commercial following, i.e., "Last year, emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases grew 3.4 percent."  He can have cake, AND eat it too... -- ED.]

And the concept is going global. Working with the United Nations, several European countries also have signed on to set up a carbon dioxide exchange with the hope of doing the same.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Just when we're talking about putting the brakes on energy use to help the climate, it looks like Americans are hungrier than ever. Last year, emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases grew 3.4 percent.

Daryn.

KAGAN: Bill, environmentalists say that's just going to make the world warmer, but a warmer northern climate doesn't just mean you need to grab a sweater on your way out the door or that you don't. It also creates a welcome environment for new breeds of mosquitoes that carry deadly diseases.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): It used to be that mosquitoes of North American were merely -- well, annoying. Today, environmental experts fear that, in growing numbers, mosquitoes are becoming deadly. Since the late '70s, scientists have been chronicling a steady rise in reported cases of mosquito-transmitted tropical diseases in the Americas.

The suspected root of the problem: global warming. Warming patterns have increased the number of days in which there are two or more inches of rainfall. They've also contributed to the frequency of droughts. The combination of rain followed by droughts has produced a rich breeding ground for mosquitoes, including the handful of species capable of spreading tropical disease.

Dengue fever was non-existent for years in the Western hemisphere, but in 1995, it infected 200,000 people in North and South America. Three outbreaks occurred in Texas, and the fever reached epidemic proportions in Brazil and Mexico. The source of Dengue fever is believed to be Asian tiger mosquitoes which have steadily moved from the southern U.S. to the Canadian border in the last 10 years. Some scientists fear that, in the future, warmer temperatures could attract more of these disease-carrying mosquitoes to the North.

Encephalitis is a swelling of the brain transmitted by mosquitoes,. It's also been spreading in recent years. Since 1980, there have been outbreaks in California, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. This past summer, a Walt Disney World water park was forced to close briefly because of an encephalitis scare.

Even more worrisome is malaria which kills two million people each year. It's no longer confined to African's subsaharan region and Asia. Indeed, the condition has affected Americans from California to Michigan to Georgia. Last year, two cases were reported in Palm Beach County, the first locally transmitted cases in 50 years. Scientists predict that temperature increases of as little as a few degrees in the next century could result in 50 to 80 million additional malaria cases worldwide each year, and that means up to 60 percent of the world's population could be at risk.

The establishment of tropical diseases in North America, some experts say, is no longer just a rumor.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN (on camera): Closed windows is one way to keep the mosquitoes away. Windows also have a role in conserving energy, which could help reduce manmade greenhouse gases.

HEMMER: When you go to work in the morning, take a look out the window. Now think about this. According to industry sources, office buildings account for about one-third of all the energy used here in the U.S. A quarter of that juice thrown right out that very same window. But new technology may change that. Details from David George.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID GEORGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Let there be light. Or not so much light. With what are being called Smart Windows, the choice is yours. Smart Windows control the passage of light with what's called SPD technology, a suspended particle coating that reacts to electricity.

ROBERT SAXE, RESEARCH FRONTIERS, INC.: I'm going to slowly apply voltage to the coatings, and this is what happens.

GEORGE: Scientists at Research Frontiers on New York's Long Island where the prototype was developed say Smart Windows could be used in buildings, cars, trains, anything with windows.

SAXE: You'd reflect heat out in the summer, and you would keep heat in in the winter, reduce your air conditioning and heating bills. So Smart Windows, as we call them, in other words, electrically controllable windows using SPD materials will give people a new way to control their environment.

GEORGE: Researchers say the SPD process works equally well with glass or plastic, and it can even be applied to existing windows.

ROBERT THOMPSON, RESEARCH FRONTIERS, INC.: It can be used quite -- right now, it can be used just adhered to any window, and it will function just fine.

GEORGE: And as for that 25-percent energy loss that occurs with conventional office building windows, well, in the future...

SAXE: It is possible that as much as 30 percent of that lost energy could be saved by using Smart Windows, and that might come to as much -- about $11 billion dollars a year.

GEORGE: Big bucks for the bottom line from technology that also helps the environment by reducing energy needs. Smart Windows are expected to hit the market in 1998.

David George, CNN, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HEMMER: Coming up, a voyage through our air, sea, and land, but, first, check out an unlikely site for a multimillion-dollar science experiment.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): It's a skyscraper in progress. And a whole lot more.

CONSTRUCTION SUPERVISOR: What we're doing here will result in a building that some people call green -- we call environmentally sensitive -- that will be just as competitive to sell to a tenant as any other building in New York.

KAGAN: The project, called For Times Square (ph), followed an eco agenda from the start. Blueprints E-mailed to save paper. Construction methods designed to conserve building materials. It aims to go easy on the earth by reducing dependence on energy sources linked to greenhouse gases. Solar panels and fuel cells will help provide power. Oversized windows will promote reliance on natural rather than electric lights. And the signs on the bottom of the building probably will use energy-efficient technology, including fiber optics, to shine brightly in Times Square at night.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: There are six billion people on planet earth, and although we have differences, every human being exists because, so far, the environment is in harmony. The land, the air, and the sea are all in sync, but what if that were to change? What impact would that have on six billion people? We begin on land.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): To understand global warming's potential impact on the land, it helps to know the basics.

Let's start in the ground. One of the essential elements needed to grow food is a moist soil. Plants need the nutrients, and without it, plants can't survive. If the earth were to heat even a few degrees, some climatologists fear there would be less moisture, dryer soil, and that could lead to drought. Similar, some fear, to the 1930s dust bowl which swept across the central United States. The Environmental Protection Agency also warns that without the proper moisture forest fires and brushfires would have plenty of natural fuel, but those are the losers.

There's a potential winners' list here as well. If the earth heated up, even higher levels of carbon dioxide would be in the atmosphere. Plants use CO2 like fertilizer. Some species would actually thrive. There's also the possibility that the nation's bread basket would shift north, perhaps even into Canada, as it becomes more difficult to grow wheat in the Midwest's warmer climates. Some suggest even parts of the Arctic could open up for farming.

Studies show that a food shortage here in the United States is not likely. Countries like the U.S. have money and resources to adjust to changing climates, but in places like Africa, there is concern. Modern equipment and technology are scarce. A drought would be devastating. The spread of the Sahara Desert, already a huge problem, could accelerate, claiming more farmland in a part of the world that needs it most. Water is certainly critical to human life, but the science of predicting what that water will do is not perfect.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DON KNAPP, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): I'm Don Knapp. In the search for how global warming might affect the sea, you can begin here in the Pacific Ocean. Researchers studying a vast section of the Pacific from the U.S. West Coast to Hawaii say they've seen a dramatic drop in zoea (ph) plankton. As much as 80 percent over the past four decades. Zoea (ph) plankton are tiny animals at the bottom of the ocean food chain. As the food goes, so go the fish.

FRANK SCHWING, NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE: If you look globally, almost every population you look at seems to be in trouble.

KNAPP: Scientists say changes in climate that affect the food supply may be as much of a problem as overfishing. Temperature changes may slow the flow of nutrients to the food chain, prompting fish to migrate in search of more food. Scientists can't agree on whether the climatic changes are part of a natural cycle or the result of manmade global warming. Biologist Jackson Davis blames global warming and says it's begun to interfere with the conveyor-belt currents that carry nutrients that sustain the world's fisheries.

JACKSON DAVIS, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SANTA CRUZ: If that conveyor belt is interrupted, if that takes place, this river current that supplies the fisheries will essentially come to stop, and that in turn could well destroy fisheries.

KNAPP: Davis is representing small Pacific island nations at the Kyoto conference on global warming. They're worried rising seas from melting icecaps may drown their countries and rising water temperatures may kill coral reefs.

DAVIS: So if coral reefs die, fisheries die, too, and the people of the Pacific have nothing to eat.

KNAPP: Not all scientists agree, and new studies suggesting a long history of naturally rising and falling temperatures make it difficult for scientists to find the smoking gun of global warming.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is John Zarrella in the Florida Keys. Dan and Ellie (ph) McConnell operate both their wine shop and wildlife tour business...

DAN McCONNELL, MOSQUITO COAST TOURS (on the telephone): The Mosquito Coast tour is a day trip.

ZARRELLA: ... from under one roof on Key West's Duval (ph) Street. Dan is one of those people genuinely concerned about the earth's health. He's studied enough to know global warming melting the polar ice, causing sea-level rise puts the Keys at greater risk from hurricanes.

McCONNELL: With each storm that comes through, as the sea continues to rise, there is a great potential for the destruction of the land form and the people that are living on it.

ZARRELLA: The destructive impact may also be more widespread. Forecasters fear waters warmed by climate change will allow hurricanes to maintain their punch further north. The result: more Southern California and New England hurricanes.

JERRY JARRELL, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: You have a little better chance of getting a strong hurricane into that area than you now have if the water is warmer.

ZARRELLA: Most experts don't expect climate change to increase the number of hurricanes, but the ones that hit will likely be far more destructive.

(on camera) Here in the Florida Keys, roadways and buildings sit within a few feet of the ocean. There is no fallback position. A modest sea-level rise coupled with storm surge, that wall of water swept in by a hurricane, would submerge this entire island.

(voice-over) Is there any bright side at all? Well, perhaps. Warmer waters won't mean more Hurricane Andrew. Those monster storms are still expected to only come along about every 50 years.

John Zarrella, CNN, in the Florida Keys.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: Just like the elements of the environment, the nations in the world are all connected when it comes to our changing climate. They may be on different sides of the great debate, but they're all involved. If you go to Europe, you'll find a special urgency and a life style that shows people care about conserving energy. Here's Jim Bittermann.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM BITTERMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Whether they're using timer lights for only as long as it takes to go down the stairs or only heating as much water as they immediately need, Europeans are traditionally careful about the amount of energy they use. On average, it's less than half as much per person as Americans. Part of the reason is that energy, especially gasoline, is more expensive here, in some places because of taxes four times more expensive than in the United States. Even so, the nations of Europe send billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year, amounts the European Union now believes must be reduced.

RITT BJERREGARRD, EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT COMMISSIONER: The feeling I have is that we know that we are facing real problems. I mean, climate change is here, and we need to solve it.

BITTERMANN: To that end, the European Union has staked out objectives more challenging that anyone else at the Kyoto conference.

(on camera) The Europeans are pushing a plan not only to take greenhouse gas emissions back to the levels they were in 1990 but to reduce them a further 15 percent beyond that, a goal they confidently predict they can reach by the year 2010.

(voice-over) To meet tougher emission standards, the Europeans intend in part to expand some existing programs. Renewable energy generation, for instance, wind and solar power, which they plan to double so it eventually will account for 12 percent of electrical demand. And they'll expand a recent campaign to switch older electrical plants from coal power to gas, a program which in Britain, for instance, cut greenhouse gas emissions drastically.

PHILIP DAUBENY, U.K. ELECTRICITY ASSOCIATION: Overall, we're going to save about 17 million tons of carbon, which is quite a lot. It's about 10 percent of the U.K.'s total emissions from all sources.

BITTERMANN: At the consumer level, too, the Europeans plan to switch to cleaner power, liquefied gas for automobiles, for instance. Buses and cars which run on electricity will pass out of the experimental stage and come into common use. European leaders also will be urging consumers to use more rapid transit. The European Union will demonstrate just how seriously it takes global warming by laying out the toughest negotiating position at the Kyoto summit.

Jim Bittermann, CNN, Brussels.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: And still to come, lessons from Global Warming 101.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: Now some numbers for you and a lot of them, too. On an average summer day, Americans' air conditioners provide enough cold air to produce 16 trillion ice cubes.

KAGAN: OK. And here's another number for you. Since 1960, the number of cars worldwide has gone up twice as fast as the population.

HEMMER: And every year, some 46 million people face the risk of flooding from storm surges. Again, a lot of numbers for you.

KAGAN: Yes, it certainly is, but if none of those facts is familiar to you, you need to join Greg Lefevre at a San Francisco high school.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN HALL, CHEMISTRY TEACHER: Carbon dioxide now. What's this doing for us?

GREG LEFEVRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Not much good. Welcome to Global Warming 101.

HALL: Some animals and plants. It actually affects them as well. It could mutate their DNA and affect their production as well.

LEFEVRE: It's a tough job making concerns of the world relevant to the concerns of an American teenager.

J.J. LEVINSON, STUDENT: Right now, I'm must trying to live and enjoy my life.

JORDAN KEVELSTAET, STUDENT: I'm a big biker, and I look at the bikers that ride in Japan and stuff, and they're all wearing these face masks, and it's -- that's, you know, just kind of scares me.

LEFEVRE: Nothing works like color.

HALL: Go ahead and use all of it.

LEFEVRE: When students take balloons filled with automobile exhaust and pump them through a test mixture, the liquid's deep sky blue turns an ugly smoggy yellow. Teacher John Hall applies the lesson to everyday cruising.

HALL: So when you burn in your car a gallon of gas, you create 5,000 liters of C02 gas.

LAUREL WONG, STUDENT: I mean, I think it like matters a lot, but, I mean, it's not really affecting me like this second necessarily, but like it will affect like the future generations. [Like-- ED.]

LEVINSON: My dad was talking about the fear that it doesn't -- that it's really not due to the pollution. It's just kind of natural trends the earth follows.

HALL: There are other natural sources. What do you think? Volcanoes. Really, volcanoes are a huge source of this.

LEFEVRE: Hall says he cannot preach but only teach.

HALL: I think that by putting it in -- within a scientific framework and not saying, "Don't drive your cars. It's bad -- " Instead I say, "Here are some things that carbon dioxide does that affect us."

LEFEVRE: He says he's got to let the future generation decide on its own, which, he adds, teens will do anyway.

Greg Lefevre, CNN, San Francisco.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAGAN: Now, as we come to the end of this hour, it's certainly not lost upon us that it's kind of hard to stir up interest in the topic of global warming.

HEMMER: In fact, a recent poll showed only 25 percent of those surveyed even considered it a big story, and that's understandable when, as you've heard for the past hour, scientists do not know exactly what will happen or when it may happen.

KAGAN: So this might seem like yet another problem that someone else can solve, but the fact is there are politicians around the world making decisions for you.

HEMMER: And what they decide will affect everything you eat, touch, and breathe in the future. So we hope this past 60 minutes has helped you decide where you stand on the great debate. Thanks for being with us, and from all of us here at CNN, good night.

KAGAN: Good night.

© 1997 Cable News Network, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


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